![]() ![]() That tells me the Suns have to do everything right as they're losing in the primary winning categories. Oddly enough, teams this postseason are 3-2 when that happens. Were 108-13 (89%) until last night when Phoenix won. Teams that had – more points in the paint – more offensive rebounds – more made 3's – more free throws attempted Action Network's Matt Moore pointed out a key stat from Game 3 that I think is telling for the series moving forward, and describes the differences in these teams: I won't bet the trend yet, but it's something I'm monitoring for Game 5 if it continues Sunday.įor my full-unit play, I’ll take the Nuggets moneyline at +120. Jokic tends to take much of the second quarter off, and if the Suns are able to capitalize on those non-Jokic minutes, they'll find success - though that's dependent on Malone's bench rotation. They've also won every game this series and I think that's depth-related. One thing that struck me in the games thus far is the home team has won every second quarter. I’ll take the over 2.5 for a half-unit and over 3.5 (+190) to win a half-unit.Īs mentioned earlier, I’ll take Brown steals + blocks at +135 over at DraftKings, but I’ll bet to win a half unit. Booker has attempted eight in each of the past two games and made four and five in Games 2 and 3. He only took one 3-pointer in Game 1, but the Suns have made a concerted effort to shoot more from deep since. I do like some Booker props, specifically his 3-point line, which is set at 2.5 at most books. The Suns are still figuring out the rotations beyond their top four guys, so any role player props could be a big risk. That means the onus falls entirely on Booker and Durant, unless Suns head coach Monty Williams can figure out a way to get DeAndre Ayton to produce. The rest of the Suns offense was virtually non-existent, going just 16-39 (41%) from the field and 3-15 (20%) from beyond the arc. He’s cleared that in five of eight playoff games and that could still be a strong look.ĭurant also finished Friday’s game with an impressive 39 points, although he took a quarter to get going (he was just 1-7 from the field in the first). Several of my Action Network colleagues have been betting on his Points + Assists over, which sits at 39.5 at most books. His playmaking has taken a step up with Durant on the team, but the books have caught on, setting his assists line at 8.5 at most places. I’ll look to his steals + blocks line at a plus-money price.īooker put on a clinic in Game 3, scoring 47 points on just 25 field-goal attempts and two free throws - a truly incredible display of midrange efficiency. Bruce Brown is small, but quick and can credibly guard bigger players. As we’ve seen throughout the series, Denver has bodies to throw at Phoenix. The Suns are a heavy midrange team, which frees up weak-side defenders to sag off their man and help protect the paint if Jokic loses a step on drive.Īaron Gordon has also been a revelation defensively on Durant and can credibly guard Booker (as much as anyone truly can) if he gets switched onto him. Murray went off for 34 points in Game 1 and Jokic scored 39 in Game 2.ĭefense was the area Denver struggled most this season, but against the Phoenix offense - as elite as it is - Jokic’s defensive deficiencies can be hidden. The Nuggets two-man game with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray provided strong offensive output in the Nuggets two wins. The Nuggets have looked like the more well-rounded team all series, but the Suns have stayed relevant thanks to elite shot-making from Booker and Durant. ![]() Let’s breakdown the matchup, discuss the odds and make give out some Nuggets vs. Can Phoenix get enough from its role players to win at home, or will Denver bounce back and take a 3-1 series lead? Game 4 isn’t as much of a historical spot for either team, so it will come down to individual matchups and game script. ![]() The Game 3 result shouldn't have been a surprise as home favorites in Game 3 have been historically profitable, going 35-22-2 against the spread (18.7% ROI) and 41-18 on the moneyline (9.2% ROI) since 2004. They say role players play better at home, but Kevin Durant was the only other Suns player to score in double figures. Below, we'll go over picks on which side will take Game 4, as well as a couple player props.ĭevin Booker had a monster Game 3, willing the Phoenix Suns to a 121-114 victory in its first home game of the series. Suns odds have Phoenix installed as a home favorite for Game 4. ![]()
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